The perception of earthquake risk and the preparation for earthquakes in New Zealand

Technical Abstract

This research examined the perception of risk of earthquake and preparedness for earthquake amongst the population of Wellington, and explored earthquake scientists' views of the accuracy of media reports of earthquake research. The research was conducted in three stages.

In the first stage a content analysis of Wellington newspapers and national magazines was carried out for a two-year period from May 1997 to May 1999 to identify articles covering earthquakes. The 38 scientists cited in those reports were sent a postal questionnaire covering questions relating to the accuracy of the media reports.

Inaccuracies were identified in 57 percent of the articles, but overall scientists were reasonably satisfied with the media coverage of their research. They were less satisfied with the coverage of earthquake-related research in general. The main concern related to the sensational and dramatic treatment of some research.

In the second stage of the research a telephone survey was carried out with 200 respondents in the Wellington region. Respondents were selected on the basis of a systematic random sample using the Wellington telephone directory as a sampling frame. Respondents were asked questions that related to how fatalistic they felt about the effects of earthquakes, how they responded to earthquakes, their knowledge of earthquakes and tsunami, their knowledge of preparations that could be made for earthquakes, their view of scientists and their view of the media. The results indicate that the public do not feel helpless about the impact of earthquakes, have reasonable knowledge about earthquakes and possible preparation for earthquakes, but are less likely to have made preparations. The public also overestimate the likelihood of earthquakes happening in Wellington compared to estimates by scientists. Half of the respondents did not believe that scientists tell the public all they know about earthquakes, and the public rated the media reporting of earthquake issues as only slightly accurate.

In the third stage of the research, four focus groups were carried out with members of the public to explore issues that arose from the previous stages of the research. These focus groups provided a rich source of information about people's reactions to earthquakes. They uncovered a variety of responses to the issue of preparation, suggesting that people in Wellington have a blasé attitude to earthquakes and earthquake preparation. This attitude may relate to a resistance to risk messages, to the practical difficulties of taking more than basic precautions, and to a lack of urgency due to the unpredictability of earthquakes. One prominent concern for many participants related to having their family together in the event of an emergency such as an earthquake.

Recommendations from the research include providing people with preparation information that gives them some sense of control but is easy to carry out. However, different groups of people are likely to respond to messages in different, and sometimes opposing, ways. Scientists need to consider ways of having some control over the presentation of their research in the media, as the sensational treatment of research may be undermining the credibility of scientists.