The Great Wellington Quake: A challenge to the construction industry

Abstract

This paper examines the nature and extent of damage due to a major (Magnitude 7.5) earthquake in Wellington. Effects on both buildings and infrastructure are assessed from Palmerston North/Wanganui to Nelson/Blenheim. The value of assets at risk in each location and the estimated damage to these is presented. Based on an assessed four year recovery period, the damage values and rates of spend and/or production required are estimated and compared with the current and potential capacity in the affected region and over New Zealand as a whole. Results show that $73 billion of assets is at risk. Assessed damage is $6.8 billion. but could possibly be considerably more. On the basis of $6.8 billion of damage. of which $6 billion is in the greater Wellington region, peak expenditure required is 300% of Wellington region's current capacity and around 50% of New Zealand's current capacity. Mobilisation of latent production capacity, through increased local production or through importing, reduces these figures markedly but raises questions of the extent to which mobilisation could be achieved.

The increases in demand will provide a major challenge to all sections of the construction industry - contractors, designers, legislators, inspectors. territorial authorities. The industry needs to take steps to develop and maintain readiness to cope with the situation effectively.

Broad issues that need to be addressed in advance of the event include:

a) The degree of control necessary from national and local government.
b) The extent to which New Zealand based contractors would participate effectively.
c) The extent to which offshore contractors become established in New Zealand.
d) The extent to which importation of competitively priced materials, plant and labour will be necessary.
e) Availability of key management and technical skills within the construction sector.
f) Relationships with major insurers and asset owners.
g) The availability of money for reconstruction and for payments to contractors.
11) The extent to which nation-wide resources can be directed to Wellington.
i) The ability of TLA's to cope with the necessary approval processes.
j) Ally special measures to control the quality of construction at a time of
high demand.