Methodology for earthquake damage prediction

Executive Summary

The objective of the project was to develop a methodology for providing earthquake risk information for buildings in urban areas using computer databases that  can be conveniently used for insurance or planning purposes.

A database of hazard estimates was prepared for general areas within a study region using digital cadastral information, identified geotechnical and geological hazards and regional seismicity predictions. Buildings within the study area were classified according to their risk of damage from strong ground shaking and damage ratios assigned for each of the building classifications. By using both the geotechnical hazard data and the building vulnerability information, annual costs for earthquake damage and the costs arising from a maximum credible event were estimated. For the study area that contained a large number of older buildings founded on weak soils, the annual earthquake damage cost was found to be very high at about 1 % of the replacement cost of the buildings and houses. The damage from a maximum credible event was found to be about 70% of the replacement costs.