Explicit uncertainty incorporation in ground motion simulations and their use in New Zealand probabilistic seismic hazard and loss analysis

Abstract

This abstract provides a summary of (published) research outcomes that have been undertaken to examine aspects necessary to progress ground motion simulation methods toward application for seismic hazard and loss analysis. Specifically: (i) validation of ground motion simulations against observations; (ii) explicit consideration of modelling uncertainties, including application to validation; (iii) simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for New Zealand; (iv) application to loss analysis.

Simulation validation: Lee and Bradley provides a summary of the work undertaken in this project associated with validation of ground motion simulation using 609 earthquakes in New Zealand. A journal publication of this work has been submitted to Earthquake Spectra. As part of this work, we also developed the automated visualization of simulations, as published in Polak and Zhu M.

Simulation modelling uncertainties: Neill et al. [b] provides an overview of the consideration of several ground motion simulation uncertainties for the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, building on our prior work published in Razafindrakoto and Bradley. Neill et al. [a] further extends the consideration of modelling uncertainties to validation of 148 earthquakes in the Canterbury region. This work is on-going, as the consideration of modelling uncertainties for ground motion simulation validation will continue to evolve as the modelling methods themselves advance over the coming years.

Simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Four publications (Tarbali et al.) provide an overview of the multiple iterations of simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that have been undertaken with partial support from this project. As seen in the authorship list, this research outcome has required a large team, but has resulted in the first series of simulation-based seismic hazard maps for New Zealand. A journal publication for this work is in the final stages of preparation for submission.