Changes in preparedness and earthquake risk perception: Lessons from the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes

Abstract

This research examined changes in preparedness and judgments of the risk of earthquakes after the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in three cities:

1. Christchurch (Canterbury)
2. Wellington and
3. Palmerston North.

Christchurch citizens had direct experience of the earthquakes, and Wellington and Palmerston North citizens were chosen because their citizens were likely to have contrasting earthquake expectations. Many citizens in Wellington have long expected an earthquake; however, this is less likely in Palmerston North, where citizens are comparable to Christchurch citizens before the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes.

Participants judged the likelihood of an earthquake before and after the Canterbury earthquakes:

1. for their own city,
2. for the rest of New Zealand, and
3. with participants in Wellington and Palmerston North, for Canterbury.

Participants reported their preparations before and after the earthquakes and their reasons for this. Christchurch participants also reported damage suffered in the earthquake.

In all three samples, expectations of an earthquake in Canterbury were low before the Canterbury earthquakes and rose significantly after that earthquake. Palmerston North expectancies of an earthquake in their own city rose after the earthquake, whereas Wellingtonians’ expectancies of a local earthquake were high before the Canterbury earthquakes and did not rise after the earthquakes.

Preparations increased after the earthquakes, particularly in Christchurch. The most frequent preparations were getting basic needs and equipment, but the greatest increase after the earthquake was in actions to mitigate damage.

These findings clarify the effects of earthquakes and prior expectancies on preparedness and risk judgments about earthquakes inside and outside the directly affected region.