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Loss modelling

Natural hazards loss modelling is the process of estimating the impacts caused by natural hazard events and is the way we build our view of New Zealand’s natural hazard risk. Loss Modelling provides data, insights and knowledge to support the decisions we and others make.

Through loss modelling, we can estimate natural hazard damage costs, both before and after natural hazard events. This enables the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake to:

  • Strengthen resilience by building knowledge and understanding of natural hazard risks to improve decision-making
  • Continuously enhance our readiness for natural hazard events
  • Use our risk financing expertise to manage the fiscal risks of providing natural hazards insurance cover
  • Support homeowner and community recovery by working with our partners to deliver a transparent, timely, high-quality and responsive process for natural hazards insurance claims 

The Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake loss modelling tool is called PRUE. PRUE uses RiskScape (external link)(external link), developed by Earth Sciences NZ (external link)(external link), as our loss modelling engine. The Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake and Earth Sciences NZ are working together to expand the capability of RiskScape.

The Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake is investing to increase the range of natural hazards we model loss for. Our plan is to grow from modelling earthquake shaking building losses to all natural hazards that NHC provides insurance for. We are also investing to model more complex, multi-hazard events, such as landslides after earthquakes.

Loss Modelling Strategy

Our Loss Modelling Strategy guides the development of our loss modelling capability.
Our vision is loss modelling insights inform critical decisions on the management and financing of New Zealand’s natural hazard risk.

Our goal is the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake provides an insightful, robust and trusted view or New Zealand’s natural hazard risk.

  • We aim to achieve our goal and vision through the following objectives:
  • We invest in the data, science, and models that support our loss modelling needs.
  • We develop and maintain our loss modelling platform and supporting technologies.
  • We have the expertise, and partner with others, to create and run models, and translate outputs into trusted information, insights, and advice.
  • We collaborate and connect across NHC and the wider system to promote the use of loss modelling in decisions.

Read the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake Loss Modelling Strategy [PDF, 3.3 MB].