How Risk Informs Natural Hazard Management: A study of the interface between risk modelling for tsunami inundation and local government policies and procedures

Abstract

This thesis researched how risk modelling was used within local government in Aotearoa New Zealand to influence decision making and action for the development of tsunami risk reduction policy and procedure. The author focussed on risk modelling for destructive tsunamis because they are a severe but unlikely hazard that is difficult to perceive and internalise. The research found that while natural hazard risk management is important for local government, it is limited by a complex system of challenges relating to lack of guidance and mandate; limited risk understanding and awareness; lack of funding, capacity, and capability; and unavailability of quality data. Consequently, risk modelling was not commonly used for developing risk awareness and influencing perceptions, resulting in a scarcity of risk-based policy and procedure for managing destructive tsunami.

This research proposes the use of ‘systems thinking’ to better understand this complex system of challenges as a whole. This approach can identify intervention points, which can interrupt the system’s dynamics and better apply natural hazard risk management in local government. The science-policy-practice interface is identified as an intervention point; however, tensions for collaboration across this interface limit its effectiveness. A formalised structure, which is mandated by integrative research frameworks, is recommended for how collaboration across the science-policy-practice interface can be improved. An improved science-policy-practice interface would enable the application of further recommendations for overcoming challenges for local government natural hazard risk management, including bottom-up co-development of trusted, useful, useable and used risk modelling, for local government to better develop risk-based policy and procedure.

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