Development of anisotropy monitoring at Mt Ruapehu volcano
Authors: M Savage, A Wessel – Victoria University of Wellington, T Hurst, S Sherburn – GNS Science
Paper number: 3737 (EQC 06/520)
A thesis was accepted as a final report and is available on request - please contact research@eqc.govt.nz for access.
Abstract
We have developed near-real-time anisotropy monitoring tool at Mt. Ruapehu volcano, using the Geonet continuous data, as a possible future eruption forecasting tool. In a previous EQC funded project, we have shown conclusively that seismic anisotropy changes in direction by almost 90 degrees, over timescales of at least several years around Mt. Ruapehu volcano. We have proposed that such changes are caused by changes in the state of stress around the volcano, which cause the orientations of systems of microcracks to change. To determine whether this knowledge can be incorporated into a monitoring tool will require a concerted effort to understand the state of the crust and its relation to volcanic activity.
For this project we have developed a quick, simple anisotropy monitoring methodology, and used it to study the Geonet data from 2002 to the present. We have found consistent directions for many of the stations. A few of the stations show some possible changes in anisotropy orientation over time, but they are not statistically significant yet.
Technical Abstract
We have developed near-real-time anisotropy monitoring tool at Mt. Ruapehu volcano, using the Geonet continuous data, as a possible future eruption forecasting tool. In a previous EQC funded project, we have shown conclusively that seismic anisotropy changes in direction by almost 90 degrees, over timescales of at least several years around Mt. Ruapehu volcano. We have proposed that such changes are caused by changes in the state of stress around the volcano, which cause the orientations of systems of microcracks to change. To determine whether this knowledge can be incorporated into a monitoring tool will require a concerted effort to understand the state of the crust and its relation to volcanic activity.
For this project we have developed a quick, simple anisotropy monitoring methodology, and used it to study the Geonet data from 2002 to the present. We have found consistent directions for many of the stations. A few of the stations show some possible changes in anisotropy orientation over time, but they are not statistically significant yet.
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