Dynamic volcanic ash damage forecasting for Aotearoa New Zealand

This report examines how to improve rapid post-eruption volcanic ash building damage assessment in Aotearoa New Zealand when decisions are needed before complete observations are available. There were three core components to the project: (1) a review of impact-data reliability that was used to inform a data reliability framework with five criteria (completeness, quality, consistency, timeliness, and assessor certainty); (2) development of a method for updating initial impact modelling estimates with new observed data as it becomes available after a volcanic eruption; and (3) testing of the updating approach with a hypothetical Taupō eruption at pre-defined post-eruption time-steps of: 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours, 1 week, and 1 month.