Funded research projects

Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake invests around $10 million in research each year, that strengthens New Zealand's resilience to natural hazards.

We distribute funding through both contestable and negotiated grants. Our currently funded, or recently completed projects, are below.

Biennial grants

Every two years, we hold a competitive funding round awarding up to $100,000 per project. These grants are ideal for targeted projects with a clear path to improving New Zealand’s resilience to natural hazards.

Biennial grants 2026-2028

In 2026, we awarded $1.2 million across 13 biennial projects.

Determining Ōkataina’s volcanic hazard

Date active: 1 March 2026 – 29 February 2028

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will use new, high-density seismic data to map the location and state of the magma system beneath Ōkataina — New Zealand’s highest-threat volcano. The findings will inform updated eruption models and emergency planning, giving Iwi, scientists, and emergency managers clearer insight into where future volcanic activity is most likely to occur and how best to prepare for it.

Researcher(s): Dr El Mestel, Victoria University of Wellington – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4531

Repairs and retrofits for resilient walls

Date active: 30 March 2026 – 29 March 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will develop and test practical methods to repair and retrofit multi-storey reinforced concrete walls in New Zealand that have vulnerable reinforcement lap splices (overlapping bars to make a continuous length of support in the structure), which can fail during earthquakes.

By evaluating large-scale retrofits, repairs, and new reinforcement configurations, the research will provide evidence-based guidance to make existing and future buildings safer and more resilient.

Researcher(s): Professor Santiago Pujol, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4539

NZ Vs30 map update

Date active: 5 January 2026 – 31 December 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will create a new, high-resolution national map showing how different ground types across New Zealand affect earthquake shaking. By combining tens of thousands of new subsurface measurements with advanced modelling, the updated map will greatly improve the accuracy of seismic hazard assessments. 

Researcher(s): Dr Robin Lee, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4534

Te Tāwharau o Rūaumoko

Date active: 10 February 2026 – 10 February 2028

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project supports Ngāruahine to plan for future eruptions of Taranaki in ways that uphold hapū priorities, continue building marae resilience as community support hubs and protect intergenerational connections to, and protection of, the taiao (environment).

Through hapū-led wānanga with scientists, emergency managers, and other partners, the research will combine mātauranga Māori and volcanic science to co-develop practical resilience strategies. 

Researcher(s): Dr Acushla Sciascia, Māpuna Consultants

Project number: 4557

Statistics of earthquake simulators

Date active: 1 February 2026 – 31 January 2028

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will develop new statistical methods to connect real records with long-term simulations of earthquakes, helping scientists better test and trust these models. The results will enable the first trial forecasts of where and when future earthquakes might occur in New Zealand, supporting more accurate seismic hazard assessments in the future. 

Researcher(s): Dr Camilla Penney, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4533

Loading suspended timber floors

Date active: 30 March 2026 – 29 March 2028

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will test how houses with suspended timber floors – a common feature in New Zealand homes – perform during earthquakes and floods, helping identify weaknesses and develop practical retrofit solutions.

The findings will fill a major knowledge gap about how typical homes respond to natural hazards, supporting stronger building guidance and more resilient housing across the country. 

Researcher(s): Dr Catalina Miranda, Joint Centre for Disaster Research at Massey University – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4538

Are Auckland’s faults active?

Date active: 1 April 2026 – 31 March 2028

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will investigate how active Auckland’s fault lines really are by using advanced mapping, ground-penetrating radar, and trenching to uncover evidence of past earthquakes.

The results will fill a major knowledge gap about Auckland’s seismic risk, strengthening national hazard models and helping planners and policy-makers better prepare New Zealand’s largest city for future earthquakes. 

Researcher(s): Dr James Muirhead, University of Auckland – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4532

Communicating nature-based risk solutions

Date active: 1 April 2026 – 31 March 2028

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will study how communities understand and respond to nature-based solutions — such as wetlands and green infrastructure — for managing flooding and sea-level rise.

By analysing public narratives and community perspectives, the research will provide practical guidance to help councils and planners build trust and support for sustainable, community-aligned climate resilience measures.

Researcher(s):

A/Prof Caroline Orchiston, University of Otago – Principal investigator
Caroline Rowe, University of Otago – PhD candidate

Project number: 4536

Communal-living insurance models

Date active: 1 March 2025 – 29 February 2028

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will explore how disaster insurance in New Zealand can better support marae-centred and communal Māori living arrangements, which are often underserved by current insurance models.

Through interviews, hui, and international comparisons, the research will identify practical, culturally grounded strategies to make insurance more equitable and resilient for Māori communities in the face of increasing climate risks.

Researcher(s): Prof Rebecca Bednarek, Victoria University of Wellington – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4535

Low-damage demountable floor-frame connection

Date active: 1 January 2026 – 31 December 2028

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will develop a new, low-damage connection system for precast concrete floors to make multi-storey buildings in New Zealand safer and easier to repair after earthquakes.

By allowing damaged parts to be quickly replaced, the system will reduce building demolitions, cut repair costs and downtime, and support more sustainable, resilient communities. 

Researcher(s): Prof Rajesh Prasad Dhakal, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4540

Intention to action gap

Date active: 1 February 2026 – 31 December 2027

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will investigate why many New Zealanders intend to prepare for disasters but don’t follow through, uncovering the barriers that prevent action.

By identifying and testing practical ways to close this “intention-to-action” gap, the research will help design more effective strategies to improve household disaster preparedness nationwide.

Researcher(s): Manomita Das, Joint Centre for Disaster Research (Massey University) – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4541

Resilient repairable timber housing

Date active: 5 January 2026 – 4 January 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will develop and test new wall and floor connection systems to make New Zealand’s timber-framed houses more resilient and easier to repair after earthquakes.

By improving the seismic performance of light timber-framed buildings and creating practical design guidance, the research will help reduce repair costs, minimise disruption for homeowners, and support safer, more sustainable housing nationwide.

Researcher(s): Dr Ashkan Hashemi, University of Auckland – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4537

Informing nature-positive insurance

Date active: 1 February 2026 – 31 January 2028

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will explore how homeowners in landslide-prone areas value different risk-reduction strategies, including nature-based solutions, and how insurance incentives could encourage their uptake.

By combining homeowner preferences with policy and industry input, the research will provide evidence to design effective, socially acceptable, and financially viable ways to reduce landslide risk while supporting biodiversity and community resilience. 

Researcher(s): Dr Stefania Mattea, Market Economics

Project number: 4542

Seismic hazards in locked zone offshore Wellington

Date active: 1 June 2022 – 31 May 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project uses ocean bottom seismometer data to detect earthquakes on the ‘locked’ part of the Hikurangi subduction interface, below and offshore the Wellington region. Stresses are building in this region that could be released in a large, destructive subduction thrust earthquake, and the seismometer data will feed into improved seismic and tsunami hazard estimates.

The findings will guide repair and re-occupancy decisions and provide guidance on strain limits during design, which will support resilient building design and strong building guidance across Aotearoa.

Researcher(s): Prof Martha Savage, Victoria University of Wellington – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3050

Improving school-based hazards education

Date active: 1 February 2022 – 31 May 2025

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project examines how schoolbased natural hazards education programmes can be better designed to support longterm resilience for schools and their surrounding communities.

It uses a participatory, codesign approach with schools in the Bay of Plenty to assess existing outreach activities, identify local needs and capacities, and collaboratively develop more aligned, sustainable education programmes.

This work will strengthen hazard awareness and preparedness from an early age, helping embed resilience within communities.

Researchers: Dr Marion Tan, Massey University – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3051

Sensing unrest in New Zealand’s largest city

Date active: 1 June 2022 – 30 June 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project improves the ability to detect and interpret early signs of volcanic unrest beneath Auckland by creating a much more detailed picture of small earthquakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field.

It combines advanced machinelearning techniques with dense fibreoptic sensing to build a highresolution earthquake catalogue and develop new tools for monitoring seismic and volcanic hazards in urban environments.

This work will improve our understanding of seismicity and its interaction with volcano activity in New Zealand’s largest city.

Researchers: Dr Calum Chamberlain, Victoria University of Wellington – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3055

Embodied carbon

Date active: 15 February 2022 – 11 April 2025

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project explores how seismic design choices for medium and highdensity housing affect both embodied carbon and long-term earthquake resilience.

It uses casestudy buildings, probabilistic seismic analysis, and lifecycle carbon assessment to compare current codecompliant designs with higherperformance, lowdamage alternatives and introduce a new “carbon risk” metric.

By linking seismic resilience with climate goals, the research supports safer, more durable housing that remains habitable after earthquakes while reducing long-term environmental, social, and economic impacts for communities across New Zealand.

Researchers: Dr Charlotte Toma, University of Auckland – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3058

High spatial resolution simulation platform

Date active: 01 June 2022 – 30 May 2025

Research theme: Smarter land use

Description: This project develops a new computer model that simulates how different land use planning policies and infrastructure investments could influence future land use patterns.

The model allows planners to test scenarios and identify strategies that balance infrastructure resilience and economic development, so planners can explore potential outcomes and trade-offs before policy and planning decisions are locked in.

Researchers: Dr Robert Cardwell, Market Economics – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4044

Biennial grants for 2024-2026

In 2024, we awarded $1.1 million across 14 biennial grants.

Testing reinforcing steel for repair and recovery

Date active: 1 March 2022 – 31 May 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will test the performance of different grades of reinforcing steel used in construction under strain and low-cycle fatigue.

Researcher(s): Professor Geoffrey Rodgers, University of Canterbury

Project number: 3060

Forecasting damage from volcanic ash

Date active: 1 February 2024 – 31 January 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will develop a more accurate method for modelling volcanic ashfall following a potential eruption in New Zealand.

Volcanic ash can cause damage over hundreds or thousands of kilometres during a large explosive eruption, so the ability to assess the risk of ash-related damage will help to quantify the cost and impact of a future volcanic event.

Researcher(s): Dr Josh Hayes, ESNZ

Project number: 3996

Imaging the Paeroa Fault for earthquake modelling

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 31 December 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will investigate the dip angle of the Paeroa Fault to get a more accurate picture of the risk it poses. Faults with shallower dip angles can generate larger earthquake rupture areas and magnitudes so they are a greater risk for damage.

The results will update our current estimates of the geometry of the Paeroa Fault and its strands, providing a more detailed view of the Fault and others like it in the Taupo Rift Fault area.

Researcher(s): Dr Brook Keats, ESNZ

Project number: 3997

Lessons from La Palma in NZ

Date active: 1 January 2025 – 31 December 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts, Resilient buildings

Description: This project will look at the impacts of lava flows on buildings after a volcanic eruption, using evidence from the lava flows during the 2021 La Palma, Canary Islands eruption.

The project will also capture detailed site surveys, and new drone and satellite images to build a picture of the potential impact of a future lava flow hazard following a volcanic eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field.

The findings will help us to understand the risk of lava flows to urban areas in Auckland and support resilient building and planning.

Researcher(s): Dr Geoff Kilgour, Earth Sciences NZ – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3998

Landslide risk assessment for housing

Date active: 1 April 2024 – 1 April 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts, Resilient buildings

Description: This project will investigate a nationwide model for assessing the risk of landslides to residential housing.

Landslides are commonly triggered by earthquakes and intense rainfall and have historically caused significant loss of life, with insured losses from landslides averaging $300 million every year.

This project will use existing landslide, earthquake, and intense rainfall hazard models to estimate the annual landslide hazard from both triggers, allowing a consistent approach to estimate losses and assess risk to residential properties in New Zealand.

Researcher(s): Dr Tom Robinson, University of Canterbury

Project number: 3999

Slope hazard hotspots in NZ

Date active: 1 April 2024 – 1 April 2027

Research theme: Smarter land use

Description: This project will test the properties of real New Zealand soils from locations surrounding buildings to uncover the potential for soil slope instability.

With this data, the researchers will identify slope hazard ‘hotspots’ – areas that are at greater risk for landslides due to intense rainfall – as well as projecting the impacts of climate change on soil properties in future.

Researcher(s): Dr Katherine Yates, University of Canterbury

Project number: 4000

Risk communication through virtual reality

Date active: 1 August 2024 – 1 August 2026

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will design and test the use of virtual reality (VR) visualisations of flood risk, with the aim of improving the awareness of flood risk in New Zealand.

Floods are a frequent, widespread, and impactful hazard which regularly cause damage and disruption; yet people are often caught off guard by flood events even if risk assessments have been completed.

The VR model will be tested by Ngāi Tahu whanau, who will provide feedback on whether the experience aided their understanding of potential severity and consequences of future floods.

Researcher(s): Prof Matthew Wilson, University of Canterbury

Project number: 4001

History of fault activity around NZ's supervolcano

Date active: 1 April 2024 – 31 March 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will investigate the earthquake history of major faults near the Lake Taupō supervolcano by excavating trenches and analysing displaced volcanic earth layers.

It aims to determine how often large earthquakes occur, how much the faults move, and whether these earthquakes can trigger volcanic eruptions.

The findings will improve earthquake hazard models, support urban planning in the areas surrounding Lake Taupō, and deepen understanding of earthquake-volcano interactions in the Taupō region.

Researcher(s): Dr James Muirhead, University of Auckland

Project number: 4002

InSAR monitoring of slopes to build back safer

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 31 March 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: Rainfall-triggered landslides across the North Island in 2023 caused major damage and loss of life, raising questions about whether warning signs were detectable beforehand, and which slopes remain unstable.

This project uses InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques to create repeated, detailed images of the landscape to analyse pre- and post-storm ground deformation.

The results aim to guide councils, iwi, communities, and government in safer planning and risk management – supporting fact-based decisions about where people can live safely in the future.

Researcher(s): Associate Prof Martin Brook, University of Auckland

Project number: 4003

2016 Kaikōura Hurunui earthquake insurance experiences

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 31 December 2025

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will examine how cash insurance settlements after disasters affect housing repairs and community wellbeing in different settings and demographics.

It will analyse already collected 2021-2023 claimant survey and interview data from people impacted by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake to see how factors like location and demographic influence outcomes.

The findings will help design future insurance programs that better meet community needs, ensuring safer homes and reducing negative impacts after natural hazard events.

Researcher(s): Mr Cameron Eade, Resilient Organisations

Project number: 4004

The cost of base isolated buildings

Date active: 1 April 2024 – 1 April 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will investigate the long-term financial cost of base isolation, compared to the cost of conventional building design, following an earthquake.

Base isolation technology is effective in reducing earthquake-induced damage; however, it is not often used in New Zealand due to higher construction costs.

The findings of this project will build a clearer picture of the long-term cost of base-isolation technology compared to the heightened risk and cost of building damage using conventional building methods.

Researcher(s): Dr Alex Shegay, University of Auckland

Project number: 4005

Improving resilience to eruptions in our built environment

Date active: 1 March 2024 – 22 June 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will test the corrosive effects of volcanic gas and ash on metallic building materials.

Large gas and ash outputs are possible from volcanic eruption, and can have widespread, long-lasting impacts downwind from the volcano.

Volcanic ash impacts to buildings have been well characterised in other research; however, the findings of this project will add detail about the corrosive impacts of gas, and of gas and ash together on metallic building materials found in New Zealand’s built environment.

Researcher(s): Associate Prof Carol Stewart, Massey University

Project number: 4006

Coastal inundation losses on Marlborough Māori assets

Date active: 1 April 2024 – 1 April 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project addresses the gap in information evaluating the cascading impacts of extreme coastal flooding events – such as tsunamis, storm surges, and king tides – on Māori land and culturally significant assets, particularly under future sea-level rise scenarios.

It combines advanced modelling with traditional environmental knowledge from iwi to create context-specific vulnerability functions. Modelling of coastal hazards impacts will help inform future land planning in areas vulnerable to coastal flooding losses.

Researcher(s): Dr Shaun Williams, ESNZ – Principal Investigator, Corey Hubbard, Rangitāne o Wairau

Project number: 4045

University Research Programmes

Every three years, we hold a contestable University Research Programme funding round, awarding up to $450,000 per project.

Along with research excellence, these projects focus on building research capability, offering valuable opportunities for PhD and master’s students to develop their skills under the guidance of New Zealand’s leading scientists.

In 2024, our latest URP round, we funded nine new programmes.

Earthquake seismology and tectonic geodesy

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This programme will address fundamental aspects of earthquake timing and strength, volcanic unrest, and slow changes in tectonic plates in New Zealand.

It encompasses several projects including spatial mapping of tectonic plates, effects of shaking on urban buildings, current state of the Alpine Fault, and applying AI-based methods to determine earthquake properties.

Researcher(s): Prof John Townend, Victoria University of Wellington – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4094

Next-generation seismic hazard analysis for NZ

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This programme focuses on improving earthquake hazard analysis and its application to the New Zealand context.

Projects within this programme will improve three aspects of earthquake hazard analysis which limit the accuracy of predictive models like the National Seismic Hazard Model: earthquake source modelling; ground shaking simulations; and site response studies to determine how local ground conditions affect shaking during earthquakes.

These projects will contribute to improved methods for earthquake hazard analysis in New Zealand.

Researcher(s): Prof Brendon Bradley, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3760

Building resilience through multi-hazard research in NZ

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This programme will develop understanding and modelling capability of earthquake and landslide events as multi-hazard risks.

It will improve the record of historical earthquakes along active faults, use a data-centric approach to produce models of earthquakes and landslides as multi-hazards, and drive new research looking at how hazards like landslides and cliff collapses are affected by climate change.

In the long run this programme aims to reduce the impact of earthquakes and landslides.

Researchers:

Dr Tim Stahl, University of Canterbury
Prof Andy Nicol, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3759

Assessment and mitigation of liquefaction hazards

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This programme focuses on reducing the risk of liquefaction through improved engineering practices.

It will address three critical areas in geotechnical engineering practice:

Improve current engineering procedures for liquefaction evaluation using lessons from the Canterbury earthquakes
Fill knowledge gaps in the liquefaction performance of soil types found predominantly in the North Island
Create accessible analysis tools for engineering practice.

Researcher(s): Misko Cubrinovski, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3761

Engineering for stronger homes and better land in NZ

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: The research will inform engineering practice by through improved data and assessment methods for housing vulnerability, and better understanding of their exposure to natural hazards.

The programme has four themes:

Soil characterisation and site classification
Residential building assessment, focusing on existing low- and mid-rise buildings
Performance assessment of rapid exposure to tsunami and flood
Engineering decision-making for the Māori built environment.

Researcher(s): Liam Wotherspoon, University of Auckland – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3758

Advancing education for preparedness to natural hazards

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This programme will identify the successful components of public education initiatives, which have led people to people taking action to prepare for natural hazards.

It will investigate the drivers of preparedness from a national public education standpoint, and from a local community context focusing on working with Kura Kaupapa Māori/Kura a-Iwi school/after-school programmes – exploring the similarities and differences in what works.

Ultimately, the research will provide targeted advice for what to include in national and local community programmes.

Researcher(s): Prof Julia Becker, Massey University – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3756

Modelling for future urban planning risk

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Smarter land use

Description: This programme will use agent-based modelling – a way of representing individual “agents” e.g. people, business, organisations and the factors that guide their decisions – to create an open-source modelling tool that simulates how housing growth and planning policies might shape land-use over time.

By combining insights from developers, planners, and iwi with spatial risk data, the research will help decision-makers plan safer, more resilient communities.

Researcher(s): Prof Iain White, University of Waikato – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3765

How misleading are past experiences of rainfall?

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project investigates how reliance on past rainfall experiences can underestimate the risk of future, unprecedented extreme rainfall events across New Zealand.

It combines nationwide analysis of historical rainfall records with highresolution climate projections to identify physically plausible recordshattering rainfall events and translate these into locally relevant risk scenarios codeveloped with councils and iwi.

By improving understanding of the scale and likelihood of future rainfall extremes, the project supports better planning and decisionmaking to reduce damage to people and homes from future events.

Researchers: Dr Luke Harrington, University of Waikato – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3764

Robust and low-damage structural design for housing

Date active: 1 January 2024 – 1 January 2027

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project creates simple, cost‑effective low‑damage design guidance for 2–6 storey multi‑unit housing in New Zealand.

It combines a national building survey with seismic modelling and lab testing of key components and connections to improve repairability and reduce post‑earthquake damage, disruption and carbon impacts – supporting stronger, more resilient communities.

Researchers: Assoc. Prof. Richard Henry, University of Auckland – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3537

Negotiated projects

We also fund projects outside of the competitive funding rounds. The budgets, timelines and scope of these projects are negotiated with the researchers and their host institutes.

Towards a National Volcanic Model

Date active: 15 May 2022 – 14 May 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will accelerate the development of a New Zealand Volcanic Hazard and Risk Model to address a critical gap in probabilistic volcanic risk assessment, which lags behind other natural hazards.

Building on over a decade of research from the DEveloping VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) programme and other national research programmes, the final outputs will include a framework for probabilistic loss modelling, impact outputs for the Auckland Volcanic Field, and applications for other high-priority volcanoes.

Researchers:

Graham Leonard (ESNZ) – Principal Investigator
Thomas Wilson (UC) – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3155

National Liquefaction Model

Date active: 22 May 2023 – 30 June 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will deliver a nationally consistent method to estimate the susceptibility to liquefaction across New Zealand.

Developed by Tonkin + Taylor, this model will support NHC’s loss modelling capability but may also be useful for others like councils and researchers.

The model will be publicly accessible via an online portal, but technical expertise may be required to interpret its outputs.

Researcher(s): James Russell, Tonkin + Taylor

Project number: 3551

National Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Model Stage 1

Date active: 29 April 2024 – 30 June 2025

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This multi-stage project will improve understanding and management of tsunami hazards. The model will include accurate inundation maps, source modelling, and improved modelling of building vulnerability to help estimate insured losses and support long-term resilience.

Stage one of this project will deliver a framework for the tsunami risk model, a Wellington-specific catalogue of earthquake ruptures and associated tsunami hazards, loss calculations, and probabilistic risk metrics.

Researchers:

Bill Fry (ESNZ)
William Power (ESNZ)

Project number: 4133

National Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Model Stage 2

Date active: 26 January 2026 - 14 October 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will develop Stage Two of a National Tsunami Model. Stage 2 provides improved understanding of the potential impact from varying tsunami events on residential properties in New Zealand.

Stage 1 delivered a proof of concept for the NTM by using the Wellington region as a case study. This involved computer-modelled earthquake scenarios to quantify probabilistic losses from possible tsunami inundation.

Stage 2 is currently in development with the goal of extending this further along New Zealand’s coastline, at first, in 20km intervals.

Researcher(s):

David Burbridge (ESNZ)
Colin Whittaker (University of Auckland)

Project number: 4569

Barriers and challenges for Māori accessing NHCover

Date active: 30 June 2024 - 31 October 2025

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will take a Kaupapa Māori approach to increase understanding of the barriers Māori find when accessing NHC Toka Tū Ake insurance cover for natural hazards.

The findings of this research will inform recommendations for structuring of insurance assistance that is accessible and response to whanau Māori impacted by natural hazards, thereby enhancing the preparedness and recovery of Māori people, property, and cultural taonga which are at risk to natural hazards.

Researcher(s): Dr Yo Heta Lensen (AUT) – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4177

Inventory of earthquake-prone timber frame buildings

Date active: 1 April 2025 – 30 November 2025

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will review timber-framed buildings on the Earthquake Prone Buildings (EPB) register to create an inventory study and understand their key features, especially masonry components like chimneys or brick veneers that increase earthquake risk.

The research will also assess whether these buildings meet current life-safety criteria and extend the analysis to smaller residential buildings outside the EPB framework to identify common vulnerabilities.

The findings will inform practical, cost-effective strengthening solutions, and support updates to regulatory guidelines for engineers, building owners, and councils.

Researcher(s): Jason Ingham (UoA) – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4364

Insurance settlements and repairs after weather events

Date active: 1 April 2025 – 30 September 2026

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will assess the effectiveness of insurance claims settlement and residential repair processes following recent extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and severity.

Through a claimant survey and interviews with key stakeholders, including building contractors, insurance assessors, real estate agents, and building control authorities, this research will contribute to an evidence base aimed at improving insurance settlement programmes to enable quality housing repairs and support the wellbeing of claimants.

Findings will identify successful practices and opportunities where processes could be improved in different contexts.

Researcher(s): Cameron Eade, Resilient Organisations – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4372

Seismically resilient partition wall design and testing

Date active: 30 June 2025 – 30 December 2025

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will generate data on the seismic performance of resilient gypsum board (more commonly known as GIB) partition walls in multi-unit housing and essential building structures, addressing a knowledge gap in New Zealand’s building industry.

It will evaluate current practices and develop improved designs that enhance resilience without unnecessary cost or carbon impact. The research findings will inform industry best practice and support revisions to seismic codes, enabling more sustainable and cost-effective low-damage design, and improved safety and functionality after earthquakes for essential buildings like hospitals and schools, which commonly use partition walls.

Researcher(s): Jitendra Bhatta UC – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4454

Assessment of plan irregularity limits in TS 1170.5

Date active: 1 June 2022 – 31 March 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will evaluate how buildings with plan irregularities perform during earthquakes and whether current New Zealand design requirements adequately address these risks.

It will involve reviewing international standards, modelling structures under varying irregularity levels, and comparing performance against global building code thresholds.

The research will provide evidence-based recommendations for updating TS 1170.5 and other relevant building code standards to improve seismic safety and design efficiency, ultimately reducing uncertainty for engineers and ensuring more resilient building practices in New Zealand.

Researcher(s): Dr Max Stephens, UoA – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3154

Improving seismic retrofits of NZ buildings

Date active: 1 February 2023 – 30 May 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project is co-funded by NHC and the Building Innovation Partnership (BIP).

It will produce a research-to-practice retrofit guide for engineers to inform strengthening of multi-storey building structures in New Zealand, initially focusing on reinforced concrete structure which are more common among older buildings, and more vulnerable to collapse during earthquakes.

This addresses an urgent need in cities across New Zealand for accelerated retrofit and strengthening of their existing buildings. The direct research-to-practice nature of the project supports the aspirations of NHC Toka Tu Ake and BIP to improve the resilience of existing buildings in New Zealand.

Researcher(s): Prof Santiago Pujol, University of Canterbury – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3341

Assessing the carbon impacts of updates to TS 1170.5

Date active: 2 April 2024 – 31 March 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will evaluate the carbon implications of the new National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) on the performance of buildings designed for various purposes and assess updates to building Technical Specification (TS) 1170.5.

The research will measure how the carbon profile of buildings changes under the new earthquake specification, including both ‘upfront’ carbon from construction and ‘seismic carbon risk’ (extra emissions from repairs after earthquakes).

The project will also assess the carbon impact of proposed changes to design rules in TS 1170.5, such as limits on irregularity, torsion effects, P-delta, and redundancy requirements.

Researchers:

Max Stephens, UoA – Principal Investigator
Charlotte Toma, UoA – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4091

Managed retreat, private insurance retreat, and public insurance

Date active: 8 January 2024 – 8 January 2026

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project investigates the connections between public and private insurance systems, natural hazards, and managed retreat. 

The project has two parts:

First the team study ‘insurance retreat’ across different jurisdictions – the decision by private insurers to reduce or no longer offer insurance coverage for specific risks.
The second part focuses on the role of insurance in ‘managed retreat’ – the decision to relocate communities and households away from risky areas.

These studies will help New Zealand better understand how insurance is responding in the face of changing risks, and how insurance affects managed retreat incentives and feasibility for communities.

Researcher(s): Prof Ilan Noy, Victoria University of Wellington – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4021

Eccentrically braced frame (EBF) systems

Date active: 1 May 2024 – 30 April 2027

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: This project will develop, and test eccentrically braced frame (EBF) systems made from timber, rather than the conventional concrete used for EBF.

This new type of earthquake-resistant system for timber buildings combines timber floors, beams, and columns with a special friction-based link that slides during an earthquake instead of bending or breaking.

This proposed design could be used by structural engineers to reduce damage, make repairs easier, and help buildings return to use quickly after a quake. By creating a low-damage, all-timber system, the project support sustainability and lowers carbon emission while meeting safety standards.

Researcher(s): Ashkan Hashemi (UoA) – Principal Investigator

Project number: 4134

Building resilience and adaptation into Mana Whakahono ā Rohe

Date active: 23 May 2024 – 30 June 2025

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This project will develop guidance and tools to support councils and Māori groups in building strong partnerships and collaborative approaches to planning and decision-making for natural hazards.

It uses a Kaupapa Māori approach informed by case studies and engagement with Māori groups seeking advice. Among the research questions, this project investigates how natural hazards are considered in the developing of Mana Whakahono ā Rohe.

Researcher(s): Lara Taylor (NZPI)

Project number: 4190

National Volcano Model – Phase 1

Date active: 30 January 2026 – 15 October 2026

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: This project will deliver phase one of the first probabilistic volcano model for New Zealand. It will:

advance our building vulnerability modelling for volcanic hazard
implement a probabilistic building damage and loss model for ashfall damage from all our volcanoes
evaluate these results against more comprehensive multi- volcanic hazard models available for the Auckland Volcanic Field, Taranaki, and Taupō.

This will equip New Zealand with information we need to make evidence-based resilience decisions.  

Researchers: Dr Josh Hayes, Earth Sciences New Zealand – Principal Investigator

Project number: 3543

PhD and post-doc projects

Funding PhD and post-doctoral research grants is an important way we help ensure New Zealand has a strong pipeline of experts who can conduct, advocate for, and apply research into natural hazards.

These are negotiated grants for projects that align with our research funding priorities. Our currently funded scholarships are below.

Guiding land use planning for natural hazards

Date active: June 30 2023 – February 1 2027

Research theme: Smarter land use

Description: This PhD project will investigate how national-level guidance can help reduce natural hazard risks within New Zealand’s changing resource management system.

It will review current guidance documents, assess their effectiveness in supporting local councils, and explore how future legislation could strengthen hazard planning. The goal is to provide evidence-based recommendations that improve land use decisions and build community resilience to natural hazards.

Researcher(s): Caelan Church –PhD Candidate, University of Otago

Project number: 3662

Science-policy interface for disaster risk reduction

Date active: August 1 2023 – December 31 2026

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This PhD project will explore how natural hazard and risk science informs policy decisions for disaster risk reduction and resilience.

It will seek the perspectives of scientists, policy advisors, and intermediaries working at the interface between science and policy, to learn how science is accessed and used in policy processes. The goal is to understand how disaster resilience may be improved by making changes to the ways science is used in policy processes.

Researcher(s): Delia Tamsen – PhD Candidate, Massey University

Project number: 3752

Developer behaviour to natural hazard risks and policies

Date active: April 27 2025 – June 30 2028

Research theme: Smarter land use

Description: This PhD project will investigate how residential property developers make decisions about buying, developing, or selling land that is exposed to natural hazard risks. It will combine international research, surveys, interviews, and workshops to understand how developers respond to risk signals and policy interventions.

The aim is to provide insights that help design more effective hazard policies and influence development patterns to reduce risk.

Researcher(s): Joel Bishop – PhD Candidate, University of Waikato

Project number: 4373

Big Data in disaster recovery assessments

Date active: March 3 2025 – January 15 2028

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description: This PhD project investigates long-term economic recovery after major disasters by using spatially detailed Big Data (such as satellite imagery, online activity, and micro-demographic data sets) to uncover patterns that traditional statistics miss.

By comparing recovery trajectories from seismic events and extreme weather in New Zealand, the research aims to identify where and why recovery succeeds or stalls across different communities.

The study seeks to inform more effective, targeted, and equitable post-disaster recovery policies for households and residential property using:

spatial econometrics
geographically weighted regressions, and
machine learning techniques.

Researcher(s): Ke Wang – PhD Candidate, Victoria University of Wellington

Project number: 4367

Wellington earthquake scenarios and seismic design

Date active: January 1 2024 – February 1 2026

Research theme: Resilient buildings

Description: New Zealand is rethinking how buildings should be designed for earthquakes – because recent disasters and new hazard data show that current methods no longer meet society’s expectations for quick recovery.

This post-doctoral research will use realistic earthquake scenarios for Wellington to help guide major upcoming changes to building design, assessment, and retrofit guidelines.

The findings aim to support decisions on how to:

manage regional seismic risk
account for local geological effects
understand how strengthening existing buildings improves safety.

Researcher(s): Preetish Kakoty – Post Doctoral Researcher, University of Auckland

Project number: 3993

National/regional research programmes

We fund national or regional-scale research programmes that bring together research on similar natural hazard topics.

Te Toi Whakaruruhau o Aotearoa

Date active: Since 1 January 2023

Research theme: Supporting people and decisions

Description:
Te Toi Whakaruruhau o Aotearoa is the Matāuranga Māori Disaster Risk Reduction Centre, initially established by NHC Toka Tu Ake and Massey University in 2020, with financial support from a University Research Programme grant.

The collaborative project is led by the Centre Director, Distinguished Professor Christine Kenney (Te Āti Awa, Ngāti Awa ki Kāpiti, Ngāti Toarangatira, Ngāi Tahu) and Deputy Director Lucy Kaiser (Kāi Tahu, Kāti Māmoe, Waitaha).

It focuses on developing Māori research leadership and capability in disaster risk reduction to minimise hazard risks, while establishing appropriate linkages with science to inform iwi, whānau and hapū, NHC, government and practitioners’ decisions and policy making.

Visit Te Toi Whakaruruhau o Aotearoa

Researchers:

Distinguished Professor Christine Kenney, Massey University – Director
Lucy Kaiser – Deputy Director

Project number: 3522

It’s Our Fault

Date active: Since 11 August 2006

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and mpacts

Description: It’s Our Fault is an award winning research programme that studies Wellington’s faults to better understand earthquake hazards in the region. Over its near 20-years of existence, over 50 scientists across research institutes and universities in New Zealand have contributed to its success.

It’s Our Fault is co-funded by NHC, Wellington City Council, and the Wellington Regional Emergency Management Office.

Visit It's Our Fault website

Researcher(s): Dr Nicola Litchfield (ESNZ) – Programme Lead

Project number: 3642

DEVORA

Date active: Since 1 July 2008

Research theme: Quantifying hazards and impacts

Description: DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) is a multi-agency, transdisciplinary research programme led by volcanologists at the University of Auckland and Earth Sciences NZ.

The programme focuses on improving our understanding of Auckland’s volcanic field and prepare for future eruptions. It is co-funded by NHC and Auckland Council including Auckland Emergency Management.

Visit the DEVORA website

Researchers:

Graham Leonard – Co-Programme Lead
Jan Lindsay (University of Auckland) – Co-Programme Lead

Project number: 3673

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For projects that ended more than one year ago, search for outputs in our published research reports.

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If you need help finding a project or report, please email research@naturalhazards.govt.nz.