$3.6 million for new research tackling earthquake fires, flood risk and coastal cliff collapse
How fires could spread through Wellington after a major earthquake, when flood-threatened communities should consider moving, and which coastal cliffs are at risk of collapse are among the questions being tackled through $3.6 million of new research.
Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC) is investing the funding across eight new three-year University Research Programmes designed to help protect New Zealand homes, support better decisions about where and how people live, and reduce the future cost of natural hazard damage.
NHC Head of Research Dr Natalie Balfour says investing in practical research now can help prevent disruption and reduce losses when disasters strike. “Every dollar we invest in understanding natural hazards and reducing risk today has the potential to save homeowners and the country many times that amount in future.”
All recipients of the URP funding round. On the left: Liam Wotherspoon, Brendon Bradley, Andres Valencia. Middle: Dr Alice Chang-Richards, Mark Dickson. On the right: James Miller, Richard Morris, Alex Shegay.
The programmes range from supporting response and recovery challenges to longer-term decisions about strengthening homes, adapting to flood risk and planning development in hazard-prone areas.
A major earthquake could trigger multiple fires, while also damaging roads and water that would disrupt firefighting efforts. University of Canterbury researchers will model how these fires could spread, helping identify ways to better protect homes
Meanwhile, University of Auckland researchers will look to overcome practical barriers to retrofitting apartment buildings by identifying small improvements that are cheap and don't require residents to leave their homes while strengthening is underway.
Another University of Auckland programme will work alongside Māori and Pacific communities in Auckland and Northland to address one of the most challenging questions raised by climate change: when is it better to continue living with flood risk, and when it is time to consider moving? The programme will develop new tools to support fair and informed adaptation decisions.
Researchers will also investigate how to better predict coastal cliff collapse, a growing concern for homeowners in many parts of the country. The programme will develop new ways to identify cliffs vulnerable to failure, helping improve hazard assessments of existing properties and inform decisions about new development on clifftops.
Other programmes funded in this round will improve understanding of earthquake hazard, housing resilience, floodplain development, and how different types of homes respond to natural hazards.
A notable feature of this funding round is the strong representation of emerging research leaders.
“One of the most exciting parts of this funding round is seeing a new generation of researchers stepping into leadership roles,” says Balfour.
Dr Alex Shegay, Dr Andres Valencia and Dr James Miller are among the early-career researchers leading a University Research Programme for the first time, alongside more established experts like Prof Brendon Bradley. Bradley's latest earthquake hazard modelling programme builds on more than six years of previous NHC-funded research aimed at improving New Zealand's understanding of earthquake risk and informing future updates to the National Seismic Hazard Model.
Every programme funded in this round also includes meaningful opportunities for postgraduate students, postdoctoral researchers and early-career scientists.
“This intentional investment in emerging researchers is so important for ensuring New Zealand continues to have the expertise needed to understand and manage natural hazard risk, not just now, but in the decades to come,” says Balfour.
The University Research Programmes begin in early 2027 and will run for three years. They are funded through NHC Toka Tū Ake's research programme, which invests in research that benefits homeowners and communities and helps reduce the future cost of natural hazard losses.
Full list of successful URP grants 2027
Smarter earthquake retrofits for apartments
Earthquake strengthening can be expensive and disruptive, making it difficult for many apartment owners to take action. This programme will investigate whether older apartment buildings can be made safer through smaller, lower-cost retrofits that cause less disruption to residents. The findings will help building owners make more practical strengthening decisions and improve earthquake resilience.
Led by Dr Alex Shegay, University of Auckland.
Preparing for fires after earthquakes
A major earthquake can damage roads, water supplies and other essential services, making it much harder to control fires. Using Greater Wellington as a case study, this programme will explore how fires could spread after a major earthquake and test different ways of responding to them. The findings will help emergency managers and communities better prepare for complex disasters.
Led by Dr Andres Valencia, University of Canterbury.
When to stay and when to move
As flood risk increases, communities face difficult decisions about whether to stay, adapt or relocate. Working with Māori and Pacific communities in Auckland and Northland, this programme will develop new tools to help weigh up the long-term costs and impacts of these choices. The findings will support fairer and more informed decisions about adapting to a changing climate.
Led by Dr James Miller, University of Auckland.
Homes that recover fast from disasters
After a major disaster, some families are back in their homes within days while others face months of disruption. This programme will investigate what makes the difference and identify practical ways to make homes easier to repair and reoccupy after natural hazard events. The findings will help reduce displacement, support faster recovery, and improve the resilience of New Zealand's housing stock.
Led by Dr Alice Chang-Richards, University of Auckland
Understanding how homes respond to hazards
New Zealand homes face different risks from earthquakes, floods, landslides and other natural hazards, but we don't always have a clear picture of which homes are most vulnerable. This programme will improve understanding of how different types of houses, including Māori housing and papakāinga, are likely to perform during natural hazards. The findings will help improve risk assessments and support better decisions about reducing risk and building resilience.
Led by Prof Liam Wotherspoon, University of Auckland
Predicting coastal cliff collapse
Thousands of homes around New Zealand sit close to coastal cliffs, but it can be difficult to tell which areas are most at risk of collapse. This programme will use drones, imaging technology and computer modelling to identify the conditions that make cliffs unstable and improve how coastal cliff hazards are assessed. The findings will help homeowners, councils and planners make better decisions about development and risk on cliff-top land.
Led by Prof Mark Dickson, University of Auckland.
Living safely with flood risk
This programme will help communities make better decisions about where and how to build in flood-prone areas. Using the Tūtaekurī floodplain in Hawke’s Bay as a case study, researchers will identify which types of development are best suited to different parts of the floodplain and how communities can live more safely with flood risk.
Led by Dr Richard Morris, Lincoln University.
Improving NZ's earthquake hazard maps
Building on previous NHC Toka Tū Ake-funded research, this programme will improve how New Zealand estimates earthquake shaking and understands earthquake risk. By combining advanced computer modelling with detailed geological data, researchers will help improve the information used to design buildings, plan infrastructure and prepare for future earthquakes.
Led by Prof Brendon Bradley.